East Africa Food Security Outlook April to September 2013
Favorable March to May rains expected to improve food security in many areas
• Food security outcomes are improving in many areas even as 12.9 million people remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania, and Rwanda (Figure 1). The current figure is less than the 14.9 million food insecure people from December 2012, the most significant improvements occurring in Somalia and Kenya, principally attributed to favorable production prospects from the second average to above average rainy season in a row.
• Although food security outcomes are anticipated to improve further from July through September in many parts of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania due to favorable March to May seasons’ production, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely to persist through September in parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan. Some conflict-affected parts of Sudan will move into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) (Figures 1 and 2).
• Conflict in Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, heightened food prices in South Sudan, Ethiopia, and northeastern Uganda compared to normal post-harvest price trends, limited labor opportunities among many poor households in the region—often due to flooding and conflict, and the impacts of a succession of poor seasons in 2011 and 2012 along with underlying chronic food insecurity will mitigate more substantive improvements after a succession of good seasons since October 2012.