￼Early Warning and Response Analysis December 2012
EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY
￼ ￼￼The Bega dry and windy weather conditions will persist over most parts of the country. In relation to this condition a further fall of minimum temperature is likely during the night and early in the morning over some highland areas of Ethiopia.
The anticipated normal Bega dry spell in most parts of the country would favor harvest and post harvest activities in areas where the activities are underway. Thus, farmers are advised to exploit the expected favorable weather conditions for the ongoing harvest and post harvest activities in their localities.
The meher crops in general are reported to be in good condition in most parts of the country. The average and above average rains during the Kiremt season created favorable conditions for crop development and improved water and pasture availability in most parts of the country.
In some areas, however, the rainfall was excessive /heavy accompanied by hailstorm and floods resulting in slight to significant damages to crops, livestock and property. Moisture stress as a result of late onset, early cessation and erratic rains has also been reported in some low-lying parts of the country.
The consumer cereal price index fell mildly between October and November 2012 as a result of supply to market from the new harvest. The direction of change is consistent with seasonal expectations, although the magnitude of change is less than the 5 year average predicts. Prices remain at elevated levels.
Seasonally, both food and cereal prices are expected to fall over the next two months as more of the Meher harvest reaches the market. The magnitude of price declines will depend mainly on the size of the harvest, although many other factors such as market structure, market inertia and international prices may influence the magnitude of change. A more detailed analysis will be available in the next bulletin following the results of the Meher assessment.
TFP admissions at national level increased while regional level admissions continued to vary.
TFP admissions are projected to remain relatively stable at October levels between November and December with expected slight fluctuations.
As of the 12th December 2012, the 7th round relief food dispatch status stood at 85%.