Food security continues to be stable across the country. Crops are in their fructification stage and in some areas crops are transitioning into the stage maturity. (August 2012)

The initial projected estimate by the Ministry of Agriculture (MAG) for the harvest is 22 million quintals of white maize and 2 million quintals of beans. These estimates are above last year’s production. During the months of June and July rainfall was below normal, causing some losses of basic grains in the eastern region of the country. (August 2012)

The rainfall forecast for the next three months is expected to be below normal for most of the country, especially in the east. The dry period (canicula) of 5-15 days is expected to take place sometime in August, affecting mainly the pacific coast and east. This could increase Primera harvest losses and impact the Postrera sowing. (August 2012)

White maize and beans retail prices have decreased by 7 and 11 percent, respectively, since June. Wholesale maize prices remains relatively stable compared to June 2012, but bean wholesale prices have decreased by almost 18 percent. Prices for white maize are almost 53 percent below prices in June 2011 and 27 percent below the five year average. Red bean prices are almost 15 percent above last year’s average and 16 percent below the five year average. These prices are unusual for this time of the year since in previous years prices have started to increase beginning in June and the decrease starting in August – September with the Primera harvest. This positive anomaly is making current food prices accessible to most vulnerable households since most of them depend on local markets for buying their supplies from June to August. According to MAG, the supply and demand for white maize and beans has remained stable and there is even a grain surplus in the markets due to a constant flow of grains from Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, as well from irrigated zones of the country which sowed earlier in the season. This surplus has prevented the typical price increases that usually occur during this time of year. (August 2012)

The food security situation is stable in almost all of the country, nevertheless the losses in the eastern region could possibly affect the Postrera season, which could cause an early start of the lean season in this zone. (August 2012)

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