GIEWS Country Brief: Democratic People's Republic of Korea 18-June-2012

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Severe dry spell in southwest and central provinces threatens 2012 threatens crop production

• Cereal import requirements for 2011/12 are expected to be revised upwards

• More than 3 million vulnerable people are estimated to face food deficit as chronic food insecurity continues throughout the country.

Severe dry spell in southwest and central provinces threatens 2012 crop production

Harvesting of the 2012 early season’s cereal crops (mainly wheat, barley and potatoes), will continue into July and planting/transplanting of the 2012 main season crops ( rice, maize and other coarse grains) began in April and is expected to last until July.

The country received generally favourable rains during November and mid-April, which benefited development of early season crops.

However, a prolonged dry spell since the first dekad of May stretching for four dekads has affected early season crops, when they were in maturing stage, currently being harvested. The dry spell has also affected the transplanted maize crop of the main season in the largest crop producing provinces, namely North Hwanghae, South Hwanghae, North Pyongan, South Pyongan, and farmed areas of Pyongyang City.

According to the initial estimates of the National Coordinating Committee (NCC) some 196 882 hectares of cropland, including 37 221 hectares of early crops have been affected. The total area affected represents about 17 percent of total national area under main season cultivation of food crops, including cereals, potatoes and soybeans. No precise information on the full extent of the damage is yet available but the moisture deficit is expected to negatively affect yields of the early crops, as well as already transplanted maize. No serious damage to the paddy crop has been reported yet. Rains, however, resumed more normal pattern during the first dekad of June over South and North Pyongan which could help restart the main season crop plantings. By contrast, North and South Hwanghae provinces continue to experience below average rains.

The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) in November 2011 estimated the 2012 food production at 4.66 million tonnes (including milled rice, other cereals, and cereal equivalent of potatoes and soybeans). This included the forecast of 2012 early crops at 500 000 tonnes. The recent weather hazards are expected to lead to a downward revision of the total cereal production.

Cereal import requirements for 2011/12 areexpected to be revised upwards

Total cereal import requirements for 2011/12 marketing year (Nov/Oct), prior to the current dry spell, were estimated by the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) at 739 000 tonnes based on the forecast of early season crops at 500 000 tonnes. Any drop in production is likely to add to the shortfall of food supplies and worsen food insecurity in the country.

As of Mid-May, total commercial imports into the country are estimated at 333 300 tonnes, primarily rice from China and maize from Ukraine, Argentina and the EU. Only 83 500 tonnes of food aid, in total, has been received in this marketing year. More imports, commercial or food aid, would be required during the next four lean months until the harvest of the main season in October-November, to help maintain the food rations through the public distribution system.

More than 3 million vulnerable people are estimated to face food deficit as chronic food insecurity continues throughout the country

The FAO/WFP mission had concluded that 3 million vulnerable people, mainly living in the five most food-insecure provinces of Ryanggang, Chagang, North Hamgyong, South Hamgyong and Kangwon, are in urgent need of international food assistance, due to an inadequate food production and commercial imports. The mission recommended provision of 120 000 tonnes, in cereal equivalent, of fortified blended food, fortified biscuits, and other high protein food commodities for distribution to the most vulnerable including children, pregnant and lactating women, and the elderly without support.

In order to improve food security in the short to medium term, the Mission also recommended national and international support for - (i) inputs, in particular plastic sheets and seeds for the early crops wheat, barley and potatoes, (ii) support for conservation agriculture (CA) and (iii) general assistance to private household garden production.