HIGHLIGHTS

• Weak El Niño conditions expected to form in the Pacific Island region during the September to November period.

• Dryer conditions expected in Fiji, Samoa and Wallis & Futuna. Above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia. Normal rainfall is forecast elsewhere, with no clear guidance given for Niue, the Solomon Islands, the Southern Cook Islands and the Society Islands.

• With the start of the cyclone season in the South Pacific in November, there is a higher than likely probability of intense tropical cyclones for locations east of Fiji, including Samoa, Tonga,
  Niue, Cook Islands (northern and southern) and French Polynesia.

• As El Niño conditions may intensify, it is important for humanitarian actors to monitor forecasts and undertake appropriate drought and cyclone prevention and preparedness activities.