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Food Security Information Note FOSIN - Jun 2008: Food Situation in the Sahel and West Africa

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Could a forecasted satisfactory rainy season ease the hike in food commodity prices during the upcoming 2008 lean period?

1. Outlook for the 2008-09 agricultural season favourable

The African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) forecasts favourable agro-meteorological conditions for the beginning of the 2008-09 agricultural campaign for the Sahel and West Africa. If these forecasts hold, the 2008 rainy season should be normal to above-normal in most CILSS member countries.

Productivity simulations from the end of May 2008 indicate provisional crop yields in CILSS countries that are equal to or above the long-term average (1971-2000), and rainfall activity in these areas is anticipated to be similar to that of 1999, which was considered a satisfactory rainfall year. There is, however, a potential for localized flooding similar to that which was experienced during the 2007-08 agricultural season.

The locust situation remains stable throughout much of the region, although some measures have been undertaken in northwestern Mauritania to combat minor infestations. Reported infestations in northern Mali and Niger have not been addressed due to ongoing armed conflicts in these areas. Increased surveillance of locust activities using remote sensing tools is needed during the 2008-09 agricultural season.