Crisis Watch No. 51 - 1 Nov 2007
Fighting between Pakistan's army and militants in Northwest Frontier Province and the Tribal Areas intensified, while political instability in the country escalated with a deadly attack on a rally marking the return from exile of Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's Party. The ruling junta in Myanmar/Burma continued to suppress dissent, with reports now suggesting that hundreds may have been killed in the first days of the crackdown that began on 26 September.
In Sudan, the SPLM temporarily suspended their participation in the Government of National Unity due to delays in the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, bringing attention back to North/South problems ahead of the 27 October start to fragile Darfur peace talks in Libya. In Somalia's Sool region forces loyal to the Somaliland administration took control of the capital, Las Anod, from neighbouring Puntland in heavy fighting that displaced thousands.
The political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina deteriorated significantly. The reaction of Bosnian Serb leadership to proposals by High Representative Miroslav Lajcak to counter obstructionism in government processes culminated in the 1 November resignation of Prime Minister Spiric. Tensions increased in Iran following Washington's announcement of further financial sanctions targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite Quds Force, three banks and several IRGC-owned companies.
The situation also deteriorated in Nepal, Somalia and Sri Lanka.
For November 2007, CrisisWatch identifies Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month, with tensions rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea as the Boundary Commission's November deadline approaches and fighting increasing in Pakistan. Israel/Occupied Territories is identified as a Conflict Resolution Opportunity, with momentum building, despite scepticism and ongoing Gaza violence, towards the Annapolis peace conference due before the end of the year.
OCTOBER 2007 TRENDS
Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iran, Myanmar/Burma, Nepal, Pakistan, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Egypt, Fiji, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), North Korea, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Syria, Tajikistan, Taiwan Strait, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe
NOVEMBER 2007 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alert
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.