FAST Crop Yield Forecast: Sorghum & Millet West Africa 03 Sep 2008
Overall yield prospects for sorghum and millet are good in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, Niger, Senegal, Mali and Nigeria, where outputs of +2% to +10% above the 5 yr average are anticipated. However there are local differences within these countries. In Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, the overall yield prospects are also positive with an estimated surplus of about +3% relative to the 5 yr mean. In Ivory Coast and Togo the conditions are also good. In Liberia and Sierra Leone crop yield prospects are close to average or somewhat less (0 to -1%) than the 5 years average and less than 2007 yields.
In Burkina Faso, water availability for the crops was very good in eastern provinces like Ganzourgou and Gnagna, while south-western provinces like Houet, Mou Houn and Comoe have a relatively normal to slightly better than normal growing season. In the north of Burkina Faso drier than normal conditions are seen. In the neighboring Upper West province of Ghana, yield prospects are good in the northern part but a bit lower in the southern part. In Northern province, prospects are generally good, except for the eastern part where lower than normal yields are expected. In Guinea, overall production will be very good in Labe. In Kankan, the output is beneficial in a large part in the west but decreased output is seen in small areas in the north, southeast and the centre. In Kindia province, the water availability is good in the north but below average in the south. In Ivory Coast, prospects are relatively normal or above average (+4%) in Katiola, Korhogo and Mankono. Other parts of the country show minor yield decreases. In the main growing areas of Bouna increases of 5% are expected.
In Mali, good yields are expected at the northern border with Mauritania of the growing areas in Kayes, Sikasso and Koulikoro with local surpluses of 10% while in the south prospects are less favourable. Conditions in the south-west of Koulikoro have improved recently, in the north and east the water availability is better than the 5 years average and better than the previous year. In Kayes, the situation is now normal or above average. In Nigeria, well above average yields (10%) are expected in northern parts of the country, in Taraba, Kebbi and the south of Adamwara province. The south of the country experiences drier conditions than the previous 5 years average. The centre of Niger province shows minor yield decreases while in other parts above average yields are expected. Reduced crop yields are seen in Kano, the east of Yobe, the south west of Benue and the north of Adamware. Declined production is also noted in Anambra and in the east of the Delta province. In Niger considerable local differences are seen in Tahoua, Dosso and Tillaberi. Some parts show increases of 10% while in other parts decreases of -10% are seen.
The maps on next page show the Meteosat derived difference yield (DY) relative to the 5 yr average (figure 2a) and to the previous year (figure 2b). The actual growing areas, as defined by FAO, are shown in figure 3a and b.