FAST Crop Yield Forecast: Maize West Africa 28 Aug 2008
Overall yield prospects are good in Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali and Senegal where outputs of +4% to +8% above the 5 yr average are anticipated. However there are local differences within these countries. In Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo, the overall yield prospects are also positive with an estimated surplus of about +4% relative to the 5 yr mean. In Liberia, Gabon, Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea crop yield prospects are slightly below average (=B1 -2%), and less than 2007 yields
In Burkina Faso, water availability for the crops was very good in eastern provinces like Ganzourgou and Gnagna, while south-western provinces like Kossi, Mou Houn and Sourou have a normal to slightly better than normal growing season. In the neighboring Upper West province of Ghana, yield prospects are good in the northern part but lower in the southern part. In Northern province, prospects are generally good, except for the eastern part where lower than normal yields are expected. In Guinea, overall production will be very good in Labe. In Kankan, the output is beneficial in a large part in the south but decreased output is seen in small areas in the north. In Kindia province, the water availability is good in the north but below average in the south. In Ivory Coast, prospects are above average (3%) in Katiola, Korhogo and Mankono but at provincial level increases of about 4% are seen. In the main growing areas of Bouna increases of 4% are expected.
In Mali, very good yields are expected at the northern border of the growing areas in Kayes, Sikasso and Koulikoro with surpluses of 15% while in the south prospects are good except for the south of Segou and Koulikoro. In Nigeria, well above average yields (10%) are expected in northwestern parts of the country and below average conditions in the north-east. The south of the country experiences drier conditions than the previous 5 years average. The centre of Niger province shows relatively normal yields while in other parts above average yields are expected. Declined production is noted in Anambra and in the east of the Delta province. In Niger considerable local differences are seen in Tahoua, Dosso and Tillaberi. Some parts show increases of 10% while in other parts decreases of -10% are seen.
The maps on next page show the Meteosat derived difference yield (DY) relative to the 5 yr average (figure 2a) and to the previous year (figure 2b). The actual growing areas, as defined by FAO, are shown in figure 3a and b.