FAST Crop Yield Forecast: Maize West Africa 1 Aug 2008
Overall yield prospects are good in Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali and Senegal where outputs of +7% to +12% above the 5 yr average are anticipated. However there are local differences within these countries. In Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo, the overall yield prospects are also positive with an estimated surplus of about +4% relative to the 5 yr mean. In Sudan and Sierra Leone crop yield prospects are close to average (=B10%), but somewhat less (1- 3%) than 2007 yields.
In Burkina Faso, water availability for the crops was very good in north-eastern provinces like Ganzourgou and Gnagna, while south-western provinces like Kossi, Mou Houn and Sourou have a drier than normal growing season. In the neighboring Upper West province of Ghana, yield prospects are good in the northern part but lower in the southern part. In Northern province, prospects are generally good, except for the eastern part where lower than normal yields are expected. In Guinea, overall production will be very good in Labe. In Kankan, the output is beneficial in a large part in the south but decreased output is seen in small areas in the north. In Kindia province, the water availability is good in the north but below average in the south. In Ivory Coast, prospects are below average (-3%) in small parts of Katiola, Korhogo and Mankono but at provincial level increases of about 4% are seen. In the main growing areas of Bouna increases of 6% are expected.
In Mali, very good yields are expected at the northern border of the growing areas in Kayes, Sikasso and Koulikoro with surpluses of 15% while in the south prospects are good except for the south of Segou and the east of Kayes. In Nigeria, well above average yields (+15%) are expected in northeastern parts of the country, in Sokoto province. In northwestern parts, large areas experienced drier than normal conditions during the growing season and yield decreases of -15% are seen. The centre of Niger province shows moderate yield increases while in southern parts e.g. Rivers and Delta province, below average yields are expected. In Sudan, the yield prospects are poor in Darfur with local decreases of -15% to -30%. In Bahr el Ghazal small areas in the centre and the south show increased production, but large parts of the province show below average productions.