DREF Allocated: None
This Information Bulletin is being issued based on the needs described below reflecting the information available at this time. Based on further updates and details from assessment reports, or should the situation deteriorate, the Federation may consider international support through a Preliminary Appeal.

The Situation

Increased tropical storm activity has developed over the past 24 hours along the eastern Caribbean rim. Hurricane Iris has now fully developed as a Category 1 hurricane, closely followed by Tropical Storm Jerry. The combined tracks have resulted in Hurricane Watches in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The Mexican states Yucatan and Quintana Roo are also in the predicted tracks. A Tropical Storm watch is in place in Barbados for Jerry.

The following information describes the progression of the storms over the weekend:

Tropical Storm Iris (October 6, 2001, 8 a.m. EDT)

Coordinates: 16.5 north, 70.5 west
Location: 105 miles SE of Cabo Beata in the Dominican Republic
Movement: WNW near 16 mph
Windspeed: 65 mph (105 km/hr)
Central pressure: 998 millibars (29.47 inches)
Watches/warnings: A hurricane warning is in effect along the south coast of Hispaniola from Barahona in the Dominican Republic to Anse d' Hainault in Haiti. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Barahona. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch is in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo westward to Camaguey.

Forecast: Iris is forecast to become a full hurricane today. On its current track, Iris will pass close to the southern coast of Hispaniola later today. Tropical storm conditions will likely spread into the southern Dominican Republic this morning. Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels, along with dangerous battering waves, can be expected along portions of the southern coast of Hispaniola within the next 24 hours. Outer rain bands are already spreading over Hispaniola. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher amounts, can be expected near the path of Iris.

October 7, 2001, 5 a.m. EDT

Track moving south away from Hispaniola heading towards Jamaica.

Coordinates: 17.1 north, 76.1 west
Location: 70 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica
Movement: WNW near 17 mph
Windspeed: 85 mph (137 km/hr)
» Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Central pressure: 987 millibars (29.14 inches)
Watches/warnings: A hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica, the south-eastern Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo, and for the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the eastern Cuban provinces of Las Tunas and Camaguey.

Forecast: Iris will be near or over Jamaica later today. Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels, along with dangerous battering waves, is expected to affect Jamaica today. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with higher amounts over mountainous areas, are likely along the path of Iris. Iris continues to strengthen with a landfall in Jamaica likely during Sunday with winds of 75 mph and rising The Cayman Islands and southern areas of Cuba could receive heavy weather from this system with the Yucatan following.

Tropical Depression 12 (TS/Hurricane Jerry - October 7 th 5 a.m. EDT)

Coordinates: 11.5 north, 56.2 west
Location: 245 miles ESE of Barbados
Movement: West near 18 mph
Windspeed: 45 mph (72 km/hr)
Central pressure: 1003 millibars (29.62 inches)
Watches/warnings: A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Barbados, Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies.

Forecast: This system is beginning to gain strength and could threaten Barbados and later in the week the Windward / Leeward Islands group. Tropical storm watches have been posted in these areas. On Jerry's current track, tropical storm force winds could reach Barbados and Tobago within 24 hours, and Grenada and its dependencies within 36 hours.

Red Cross/Red Crescent Action

The National Societies of Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica have been notified of the threat. Red Cross volunteers have been alerted and are being mobilized to assist should this become necessary. The Regional Delegation in Santo Domingo is in contact with all National Societies threatened. The Pan American Disaster Response Unit (PADRU) in Panama and the Head of Operations (Americas/Pacific) in Geneva are alerted should their resources be required. The Regional Delegation in Guatemala has been contacted as "Iris" could possibly build up force across the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the Mexican states of Yucatan and Quintana Roo. The Jamaican Red Cross will be examining the various scenarios depending on where exactly the hurricane may impact with a view to evaluating what possible relief supplies may be needed. The provision of shelter with the attendant relief goods to support that activity could become problematical if areas of higher population where to be affected.

Needs

Based on past experience, should Iris make landfall the immediate needs will be for shelter material, such as plastic sheeting, food, water and hygiene kits. Food supplies would become a priority two to three days after the event as supplies for shelter residents is exhausted. The Pan American Disaster Response Unit (PADRU) has emergency stocks of plastic sheeting in it's warehouse and has access to additional essential supplies should the need arise. Details of airport capacity in the region and importation regulations have been established with the Regional Delegation in Santo Domingo and should airlift assistance be required contact is being made with COPA and Air Jamaica to establish cargo lift availability should the transfer of supplies become necessary.

For further details please contact :

• Ian Logan, Disaster Management and Coordination; Phone: 41 22 730 4984; Mobile phone: 41 79 217 33 81; Fax 41 22 733 0395; email logan@ifrc.org
  
  
• John Humphries, Head of Regional Delegation Santo Domingo; Phone +1 809 567 33 44/0716; mobile phone + 1 809 696 88 20

All International Federation Operations seek to adhere to the Code of Conduct and are committed to the Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response (SPHERE Project) in delivering assistance to the most vulnerable.

For support to or for further information concerning Federation operations in this or other countries, please access the Federation website at http://www.ifrc.org

For longer-term programmes, please refer to the Federation's Annual Appeal.

Santiago Gil
Head
Americas Department

Peter Rees-Gildea
Head, a.i.
Relationship Management Department