New analysis points to risk of severe disease from Pandemic (H1N1) 2009

Report
from World Health Organization
Published on 14 Jul 2009 View Original
MANILA, 14 July 2009, 1600 hrs - Almost 100 Australians are currently in hospital with Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, health authorities said, as a new analysis of hospitalized cases in the state of Victoria found that young and healthy people had been severely sickened by the virus.

Australia is one of a number of countries in the Western Pacific Region to have shifted to a mitigation phase in its response to the disease and is no longer testing all suspected cases. Also, some countries are not reporting new cases on a daily basis. As a result, the actual number of infections in the Region is likely to be significantly higher than official WHO figures.

An analysis of the first six Victorians to be admitted to intensive care units with the virus revealed that two previously healthy men, aged 24 and 41, had been hospitalized with severe respiratory illness. The other four cases had risk factors which predisposed them towards severe infection, including asthma, chronic lung disease, obesity, pregnancy, and a smoking habit.

Both of the previously healthy men recovered, and media reports quoted one of the report's authors as saying that the worst of the epidemic has passed in Victoria. The analysis sounded a warning, however, saying that although Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 usually caused mild disease, it could lead to severe respiratory complications in a small proportion of patients.

"Youth and prior good health do not preclude the possibility of severe respiratory failure," it noted. The analysis predicted that "...further cases of severe respiratory failure associated with this influenza will be seen."

Of the 95 people in Australian hospitals with the virus, 26 are in intensive care. Health authorities in the state of New South Wales reported the state's fourth death of a person with Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, a 61-year-old woman with underlying medical conditions. More intensive care beds would be opened in NSW if the number of patients continued to climb, according to a local media report quoting Dr Tim Smyth, the Deputy Director-General of NSW Health.

In the Philippines, a senior health official confirmed the deaths of two people with the virus, according to local media reports, taking the number of deaths linked to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in that country to three. The media reports cited a senior Health Department official as putting the number of confirmed cases in the Philippines at 2668. The Philippines has not reported cases to WHO since 2 July, when the figure was 1709.

Health authorities in New Zealand reported 224 new cases, while advising that the actual number of cases is likely to be significantly higher due to the small proportion of people being tested. New cases were also identified in Japan, Brunei Darussalam, the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong (China), Fiji, Malaysia, and Viet Nam.

The total number of laboratory confirmed cases in the Western Pacific Region stood at 21 900, as of 14 July, with 31 deaths (in brackets besides the case numbers below) linked to the virus.

- Australia 9050 (19)

- Brunei Darussalam 300 (1)

- Cambodia 9

- China 1354

- Hong Kong (China) 1327

- Macao (China) 81

- Taiwan (China) 61

- Cook Islands 1

- Fiji 44

- Japan 2636

- Lao PDR 7

- Malaysia 772

- New Zealand 1779 (7)

- Palau 1

- Papua New Guinea 1

- Philippines 2668 (3)

- Republic of Korea 446

- Samoa 1

- Singapore 1111

- Vanuatu 3

- Viet Nam 248