Food Security Early Warning System, Food Security Update - October 2011
SADC REGIONAL SUMMARY
Assessments by the end of October 2011 indicated that the 2011/12 rainy season had not commenced in most parts of the region except for a few isolated areas. Planting rains are mostly expected in November in the Region.
Latest rainfall forecasts indicate that most parts of the Region may receive normal to above normal rains during the period November 2011 to January 2012. Should this be realized and farmers are able to timely access inputs, the Region may have another good harvest in 2012.
Final estimates indicate a 2011 SADC cereal production of 33.08million tonnes, which is 5% down on the 2010 production of 34.64 million tonnes. Maize and sorghum/millet production went down in 2011 compared to previous year while productions of wheat and rice went up.
The 2011/12 demand/supply assessment indicate a Regional cereal deficit of about 0.95 million tonnes for the 2011/12 marketing year compared to a surplus of 0.73 million tonnes in 2009/2010.The deficit is mostly due to a reduction in maize surplus from 4.81 million tonnes in 2010/11 to 2.73 million tonnes in 2011/12 marketing year. This is mostly due to reduced cereal production especially in South Africa.
Trend analysis shows a decreasing number of food insecure populations during the past seven years. However, the number remains high in spite of improved food production in the recent years, probably an indication of chronic food insecurity and high levels of poverty in the region.