FAST Crop Yield Forecast: Maize Southern Africa 11 Mar 2009
In Zambia and Angola the growing season has been dry up to now and reductions in yield up to -5% are expected. Above average maize yields are seen in Botswana (+5%), South Africa (+3%) and Swaziland (+2%) and 1% to 3% below average national yields in Lesotho, Mozambique and Namibia. Moderate dry conditions in Malawi and Zimbabwe could result in yield decreases that are about 6% lower than the 5 years average.
In Malawi, the Northern as well as the Southern Region have been dry since the start of the growing season and reduced yields of about -6% are forecasted, although the crop growing conditions have improved during the season. The water availability was better in the Central Region but on the average the yield in this region will also be about 4% lower than last year.
In Zambia dry conditions with local differences are seen in the whole territory and a small reduction in yield is expected in all maize growing areas. In the south-west (Southern Province, Lusaka) the growing conditions improved a little. The national yield however is still expected to be lower (-5%) than the 5 years average.
In Swaziland the national average yield will be slightly higher (+3%) than the 5 years average and the yield will be much better than previous year (+11%). In the south, the growing conditions have improved during the past month.
In Mozambique the average maize yield in the main growing areas will be very good and better than the 5 years average and the national yield is expected higher than previous year (+8%). In the southern part of the country however, severe drought is seen in Maputo, Inhambane and Gaza and reduced yields (-15%) are foreseen.
In Zimbabwe drought is also seen in Manicaland and Masvingo. The yields are better and above average in Mashonaland and Matebeland North. National average yield however is expected to be lower (-5%) than the historical average.
In South Africa the national yield is higher (+3%) than the 5 years average. The growing conditions are considerably better in all parts of South Africa except in Northern Cape and Western Cape. In the main maize growing areas, high yields are expected in the North-west (+9%), Gauteng (+8%) and Free State (+7%).
In Lesotho the national yield is a bit lower than the 5 years average (-2%) and compare to last year the expected yield is 2% higher. All parts of the country have been affected by drought in the past two dekads.
In Botswana the maize yield at national level is higher than the 5 years average (+5%) but in the main maize growing areas there is a big difference between the north and the south. In Chobe in the north yield decreases of -7% are expected but in the south the growing conditions are considerably better (+20%).
In Namibia the national average yield is normal compared to the 5 years average (-1%) and the yield of previous year.
In the maize growing areas of Angola the national yield is 5% lower than the 5 years average. Comparing to last year the expected yield should result in somewhat better yields (+2%).