DATE=3/18/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-35972
TITLE=ALBANIA AFTER THE EXPLOSION
BYLINEí WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:

INTRO: THE VIOLENCE AND TURMOIL HAVE SUBSIDED IN ALBANIA. BUSINESSES THAT ESCAPED DESTRUCTION IN THE CAPITAL TIRANA HAVE REOPENED, AND BUSES ARE AGAIN TAKING PEOPLE TO WORK AMID THE SMOULDERING RUINS OF THE CITY. BUT ARMS HAVE BEEN WIDELY DISTRIBUTED, AND REBELS IN THE SOUTH CONTINUE TO DEMAND THE RESIGNATION OF PRESIDENT SALI BERISHA. IN THE AFTERMATH, PEOPLE ARE ASKING HOW IT HAPPENED? AND THERE SEEM TO BE NO EASY ANSWERS. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE VIEWS OF TWO VETERAN ALBANIA WATCHERS.

TEXT: THE FORCES OF ANARCHY APPEAR TO HAVE SPENT THEMSELVES IN ALBANIA, SAYS NICHOLAS PANO, PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AT WESTERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY:

// PANO ACTUALITY //

WE SEEM TO BE IN A NEW PHASE IN THE ALBANIAN CRISIS. HOPEFULLY, THE WORST OF THE VIOLENCE IS OVER. THERE SEEMS TO BE AN EFFORT ON THE PART OF THE MORE RESPONSIBLE ELEMENTS OF THE ALBANIAN PUBLIC, EVEN SOME OF THE LEADERS OF THE REBELLIOUS GROUPS AS WELL AS THE LEADERS OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT OF RECONCILIATION -- ALL APPEAR TO BE DETERMINED TO TRY TO FIND SOME FORMULA THAT WILL LEAD ALBANIA OUT OF THE CRISIS SITUATION IT HAS FOUND ITSELF.

// END ACT //

THE IMMEDIATE CAUSE OF THE UPRISING WAS THE SUDDEN, DEVASTATING COLLAPSE OF PYRAMID FINANCIAL SCHEMES IN WHICH SOME 700 THOUSAND ALBANIANS INVESTED IN A POPULATION OF THREE-POINT-FOUR MILLION. LIKE SIMILAR RACKETS THE WORLD OVER, INITIAL PARTICIPANTS MADE A
KILLING, WHILE LATER ONES LOST EVERYTHING. IN THE FRENZY TO PROFIT, MANY HAD RISKED ALL THEY OWNED.

IN THE DISASTER, ALBANIANS BLAMED THEIR GOVERNMENT FOR NOT PROTECTING THEM. INDEED, PROFESSOR PANO SAYS THERE IS EVIDENCE THE GOVERNMENT WAS INVOLVED TO SOME EXTENT IN THE SCHEMES.

JONAS ROLETT, A SENIOR PROGRAM OFFICER AT THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, SAYS WHEN THE GOVERNMENT FINALLY DECIDED TO CRACK DOWN ON THE SCHEMES, IT MADE MATTERS WORSE:

// ROLETT ACTUALITY //

AS THE LOCAL CITIZENS SAW POLICEMEN EXITING THESE STOREFRONTS WITH BAGS OF MONEY AND PUTTING THEM INTO A VAN AND DRIVING AWAY, THEY HAD NO CONFIDENCE THAT THE POLICE AS AN INSTITUTION WOULD DO THE RIGHT THING. THEY ASSUMED THAT THE POLICEMEN WERE GOING TO HELP THEMSELVES AND THAT THIS MONEY WOULD BE CONFISCATED AND WAS GOING TO LINE THE POCKETS OF PEOPLE WHO WERE IN POWER.

// END ACT //

THE FINANCIAL LOSSES CAME ON TOP OF GROWING DISCONTENT IN EUROPE'S POOREST COUNTRY. AFTER ESCAPING FROM A HALF CENTURY OF COMMUNIST RULE, ALBANIANS EXPECTED BETTER TIMES AND WERE KEENLY DISAPPOINTED WHEN THEY DID NOT ARRIVE. SO THEY DETERMINED TO CATCH UP FAST WITH GET-RICH QUICK SCHEMES.

MR. ROLETT SAYS A CORRUPT POLITICAL SYSTEM AND LAST YEAR'S UNFAIR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ADDED TO THE GRIEVANCES. ALL COMBINED IN AN INTENSE EXPLOSION:

// ROLETT ACTUALITY //

PEOPLE WHO HAVE HAD VERY LITTLE EXPERIENCE WITH POLITICAL EXPRESSION HAVE FOUND THEMSELVES AT LIBERTY TO DO WHATEVER THEY WANTED TO DO, AND IN THEIR DELERIUM, THEIR INITIAL EMOTIONAL RELEASE, THEY SHOT GUNS INTO THE AIR, THEY RAN RIOT, THEY BURNED DOWN BUILDINGS. THIS WAS AN EMOTIONAL REACTION TO 50 YEARS OF REPRESSION. THE CORK HAS POPPED OUT OF THE TOP OF THE BOTTLE.

// END ACT //

IF THIS WAS A POPULAR UPRISING, SAYS PROFESSOR PANO, IT WAS ALSO SOMETHING MORE. VARIOUS GROUPS, INCLUDING COMMUNISTS AND CRIMINALS, TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE CHAOS TO FURTHER THEIR
INTERESTS. SMUGGLERS IN THE SOUTH LIBERATED SOME SPEED BOATS THAT HAD BEEN IMPOUNDED AND RETURNED TO THEIR ILLICT TRADE:

// PANO ACTUALITY //

THEY JOINED WITH THE LEGITIMATE POLITICAL FORCES, THE ORDINARY PEOPLE WHO HAVE SUFFERED. AND THEN OF COURSE, THIS MOVEMENT JUST SUCKED UP EVERYBODY ELSE -- KIDS ON THE STREET, THRILL SEEKERS, AND THIS HAS LED TO A RATHER UNDISCIPLINED, UNRULY KIND OF UPRISING WHICH REALLY DOES NOT HAVE A CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF ANY KIND, AND IT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE IT MIGHT GO.

// END ACT //

IT ALSO MIGHT NOT GO ANYWHERE, SAYS PROFESSOR PANO. IT IS PECULIARLY ALBANIAN AND IS CONFINED WITHIN ITS BORDERS, EXCEPT FOR THE REFUGEES POURING INTO ITALY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH AND AMONG ETHNIC GROUPS, INCLUDING THE GREEK MINORITY. BUT NO DEEP SEATED HOSTILITIES STAND IN THE WAY OF A SETTLEMENT.

PROFESSOR PANO ADDS THAT ALBANIANS HAVE NO RESENTMENT OF FOREIGNERS, ARE WESTERN ORIENTED AND WOULD WELCOME OUTSIDE HELP TO SOLVE PROBLEMS THEY CANNOT SEEM TO SOLVE THEMSELVES.
(SIGNED)

NEB/EW/CF

18-Mar-97 10:51 PM EST (0351 UTC)