Climate Prediction Center’s Central Asia Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET March 20 – March 26, 2013
￼From March 1-10, 2013, temperatures were above normal across Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and the lowlands of Afghanistan, with positive anomalies ranging between 1 to 8 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, normal to slightly below normal temperatures (1 to 2 degrees Celsius) were observed across the central highlands and northeast mountains of Afghanistan. For the next week, above normal temperatures are forecast to continue across south Central Asia except across higher elevations in central and northeastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan and Tajikistan, where below normal temperatures are forecast. Minimum temperatures are likely to fall below -10 degrees Celsius over these regions, with the coldest temperatures (-25 degrees Celsius) across the highest elevations in northeast Afghanistan and eastern Tajikistan.
During the past week, the passage of several low pressure systems resulted in light to moderate precipitation (10-50mm) across northern Afghanistan, southern Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, northern Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and southern Kazakhstan. The precipitation has continued to help partially reduce deficits over dry portions of south Central Asia, although, snow water volume remains below-average across basins in central Afghanistan and Tajikistan. During the next week, several low pressure systems are forecast to impact south Central Asia with a combination of rain and snow at higher elevations. Overall, moderate precipitation amounts (10-40mm) are expected in Afghanistan, southern Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, northern Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan. A second storm system is likely to cause moderate to locally heavy rain (>20mm) across central and eastern Afghanistan. Heavy rains in eastern Afghanistan combined with spring snow melt could cause localized flooding during the next week.