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Afghanistan + 1 more

Afghanistan Food Security Outlook Update, August 2016

Attachments

Key Messages

  • As of August 21st, more than 220,000 people had fled their homes due to conflict within Afghanistan since the beginning of the year, with displacements occurring in 30 of 34 provinces. Many of the displaced are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as normal sources of food and income are disrupted.

  • More than 100,000 Afghanistan nationals have been forcibly repatriated from Pakistan in August. Most of these returnees have not received assistance from government or humanitarian partners. In the absence of assistance, returnees are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period.

  • In July 2016, wheat flour to casual labor terms of trade (ToT) was below the five-year average in most markets monitored, although similar to last year. The most notable declines from their respective averages were in Faizabad (-25.9 percent), Kandahar (-17.8 percent), Maimana (-17.7 percent), Jalalabad (-15.7 percent), and Mazar-i-Sharif (-12.8 percent). In Nili, the reference market in the central highlands, this ToT has remained low at 10 KG wheat flour/day. The wheat flour to sheep ToT has declined in Nili, to 21.6 percent below the five-year average.

  • The anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which could reach the La Niña threshold in the coming months, increase the risk of below-average precipitation in Afghanistan during the peak of the upcoming wet season in the first months of 2017. However, there remains a large spread of possible seasonal outcomes due to natural weather variability over the region and uncertainty regarding the evolution of SST anomalies.

  • Although the number of people facing acute food insecurity has decreased seasonally in recent months with main season harvests beginning in May/June and related labor opportunities, current populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) remain and require urgent humanitarian assistance to minimize food consumption gaps, treat cases of acute malnutrition, and protect livelihoods.