Afghanistan Food Security Outlook, June 2017 to January 2018
Conflict has continued to drive a high number of displacements, with nearly 150,000 people newly displaced in 2017. Conflict throughout most provinces of the country has also disrupted normal livelihoods patterns and marketing activities in some areas. Furthermore, more than 200,000 Afghan nationals have returned to the country in 2017, primarily from Pakistan. Many of these households will have few income-generating opportunities as agricultural labor demand declines after September, and will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of assistance.
Although peak snow accumulation during the 2016/2017 winter was above average in all basins monitored, spring rainfall in March and April was well below average in several areas dependent on rainfall for wheat and other staple crop production, particularly in parts of the north and northeast. Extended dry spells were also observed in some areas. Many households whose own production was adversely affected are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes or worse from October through at least January 2018.
Stable imports of wheat and improved labor wages in some areas compared to recent years, as well as above-average terms of trade for livestock to wheat flour, are likely to facilitate seasonally normal food access for most poor households who have not been directly affected by ongoing conflict or spring rainfall anomalies.