Following good performance of long rains since March, food security improves in eastern areas

KEY MESSAGES

• The March to May long rains have been average to above average in amounts in the Southeastern Marginal Mixed Farming and pastoral livelihood zones, but they are expected to cease normally in mid-May. In most parts of the Coastal Marginal Agricultural Mixed Farming livelihood zone, rainfall will likely peak in May/June and cease in June/July.

Mixed rainfall performance reported

Minimal food insecurity in most rural areas

KEY MESSAGES

• Though poor households in most parts of the country have depleted their household cereal stocks, smooth trade flows (domestic, cross-border, and imports) should ensure good nationwide and region-wide food availability, at least through the end of June. Thus, there should not be any visible deterioration in household food security between April and June (Figures 1 and 2).

Record rise in cereal prices undermines household food security

KEY MESSAGES

• Increasing millet and maize prices, already well aboveaverage in April, will overshoot seasonal norms between now and the height of the lean season and the end of Ramadan in late August due to market disruptions triggered by last year’s floods in Nigeria. Central and Eastern Niger will be most affected.

Crisis levels of food insecurity in the CAR

The fall of government and ongoing civil insecurity in the Central African Republic are contributing to heightened levels of food insecurity across the country. Uncertainty with respect to future changes in conditions makes it difficult to predict the most likely trends in national food security outcomes. Thus, the following analysis assumes a continuation of the status quo and will be updated as new data is made available.

KEY MESSAGES

Temperatures

During the past week, temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal across most of Central Asia. Temperatures are forecast to average 2 to 6 degrees C above normal during the second week of May. Minimum temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing except for the highest elevations of Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Maximum temperatures are forecast to occasionally warm above 30 degrees C across southwest Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan during the next week.

Precipitation

Heavy, torrential rain fell over many parts of western Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern Somalia, Kenya and Uganda.

1) Poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has resulted in deteriorating ground conditions since January. This has negatively impacted crops and livestock throughout many parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia.

Flood related crop damage and the resultant below-average crop production contribute to poor food supply within Nigeria and the rest of West Africa.