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Elections and security in Ituri: Stumbling blocks and opportunities for peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo

FEWER - Africa and AIP would like to stress that this report is based on the situation observed and information collected between January and April 2006, mainly in Ituri and Kinshasa. The 'current' situation therefore refers to the circumstances that prevailed during this period. The regular production of early warning reports on the Great Lakes during 2005 was made possible thanks to the generous support of external partners. All of the opinions expressed below are provided as a source of information directly "from the field", in accordance with
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Strategic reconstruction and development assessment - North Caucasus

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
RATIONALE AND METHODOLOGY

The study presented here has been commissioned by the UK government's Global Conflict Prevention Pool (GCPP) to obtain a better understanding of the situation in the North Caucasus for all actors with an interest in socio-economic recovery and stabilisation in the region.

The study takes the form of a Strategic Reconstruction and Development Assessment (SRDA), core of which is an analysis of security, development and governance (and the relationships between them) in the North Caucasus at regional and local levels.

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Indicateurs de conflit et de paix en RDC - Jul 2005

Ce rapport est fondé sur des interviews de terrain des acteurs-clefs aussi bien locaux que régionaux, en combinaison avec des informations collectées durant la période allant du 1 au 20 juillet 2005. Il est axé essentiellement sur la préparation des élections à Kinshasa et sur les récentes attaques menées par les FDLR au Sud Kivu. (Le document original en anglais fait foi)

INTRODUCTION

Le 30 juin et la "fin présumée de la transition" se sont déroulés sans conflit majeur, comme certains l'avaient prédit. Les tensions en RDC et la précarité du processus de paix

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Tanzania: Zanzibar electoral violence and reconciliation

This report draws heavily on the conflict analysis methodology developed by the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response -- Africa (FEWER Africa).
Three assumptions/values permeate this report. Firstly, good and operationally relevant analysis is not neutral or impartial, but strives to be balanced. It should reflect local voices as much as possible and concomitantly incorporate regional and international perspectives. Secondly, deep concern of the eminent conflicts throughout the Africa continent is in the spirit of the conclusions drawn. In some
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DRC: Ituri watch Mar 2005

Period covered: 1 - 28 Feb 2005
Introduction/Background

Instability in Ituri is becoming the status quo. After a considerable period of overall calm and hope, dogged only with low level of violence against civilians, Ituri has once again veered into widespread and large-scale violence. Although local civilians and even some community leaders from all ethnic backgrounds seem to not really understand what is going on, the ongoing violence has perfectly been portrayed as an ethnic rivalry once again.

From the time violence erupted some two

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DRC: Ituri update - 31 Dec 2004

Africa Initiative Program: Insecurity Persists in Ituri end 2004

Overview

The current fighting in North Kivu is a stark reminder that the setting up of the Transitional National Government (TNG) in the capital of Kinshasa in June 2003 has still done little to end the conflict in the Eastern part of DRC. Politicians in Kinshasa have pledged their support to political process while continuing to support military solutions to the unresolved problems in both the Kivus and Ituri. It is unlikely that the planned national elections will resolve this crisis.

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DR Congo: Ituri update 01 - 30 Jun 2004

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND
The month of June has been one of heightened worries and concerns over the future of the entire peace process in the DRC. This is due to the resurgence of rebel activities in the Kivu provinces by a group of renegade former RCD soldiers allied to Colonel Jules Mutebusi and General Laurent Nkunda, both ethnic Tutsis from South and North Kivu provinces respectively. These two military commanders opposed the Kinshasa-appointed General Mbuza Mabe and engaged him and his troops in gun battles which
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DRC/South Kivu: Jun 2004 - Situation report and recommendations for engagement

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The fall of Bukavu, the Democratic Republic of Congo's fourth city, on June 2 has highlighted the underlying problems of the local and national peace process. Tensions have been mounting in the region since October 2003. Bukavu has existed in a state of armed peace since a dispute in February between former partisans of the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) and the pro-Kinshasa commander of the 10th military region. Peace is not static and in the face of potential overrun of violence to other armed groupings it is imperative that the DRC's Transitional Government

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DRC: Ituri update 15 - 31 Jan 2004

INTRODUCTION
The overall political and security environment in the Ituri region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has not significantly improved from the situation at the end of 2003. However, some important political events in December 2003 have given rise to the present conditions in Ituri and its main town, Bunia.

The transitional national government of Kinshasa has been sending high-level representatives to Ituri in order to assert its administrative control over the region. It appears as though

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Uganda + 1 other
Situation report northern Uganda, Jan 2004

The report is based on findings during October 2003. For enquiries or comments, contact: Shameza Abdulla, sabdulla@fewerafrica.org.
INTRODUCTION

The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels have been waging a seventeen-year war that has led to gross violations of human rights against civilians living in the northern areas of Gulu, Kitgum, Pader, Arua (Acholiland) and Soroti. The issue of child abductions has persisted ever since the beginning of the LRA insurgence 17 years ago. It is reported that the rebel group has abducted at least 5,000 children

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Workshop report: DRC - Assessing the Ituri Interim Administration, Jan 2004

At its inception in April 2003, the Ituri Interim Administration (IIA) was assigned two specific missions that constitute its mandate: reconciling communities (pacification) and effectively manage public services in Ituri (administration). Despite these assigned tasks, the IIA continues to have limited resources, and its capacity to carry out its objectives has been called into question.
Bearing this in mind, AIP, FEWER and APFO in collaboration with the Nairobi Peace Initiative have organised a series of workshops to provide the participants, members of the Interim
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Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire - "Pax Marcoussis": Emerging challenges and prospects

West Africa Early Warning Network (WARN)
WARN Policy Brief
Introduction

The road map for peace in Côte d'Ivoire as laid down in the January 2003 Linas-Marcoussis Peace Agreement received a boost when President Laurent Gbagbo, hitherto vehemently opposed to the deal, declared his intention to implement the agreement. Meeting in Yamoussoukro, December 4, 2003, President Gbagbo for the first time pledged to fully comply with the Marcoussis document, much to the chagrin of his supporters who remain opposed to Pax Marcoussis, which they describe as a disgrace

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Implications of the Anti-Terrorism Campaign for Conflict Prevention: A Preparadness Resource for the Field

The Implications of the Anti-Terrorism Campaign for Conflict Prevention - A Preparedness Resource for the Field is our second report on the anti-terrorism campaign. Its aim is to shed light on implications of the campaign for conflict prevention efforts at a regional and global level. The report is prepared by analysts drawn from within and outside the FEWER network and includes the following:

- An assessment of recent anti-terrorism policy developments;
- Emerging implications of anti-terrorism efforts on conflict prevention work from a regional and global perspective; and
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DR Congo: Ituri - Stakes, actors, dynamics

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Improved conditions in the region of Ituri, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), are extremely fragile and require continued international attention. It is premature to believe that the threat of violence around the town of Bunia has been fully removed. A medium-term approach should guide intervention in Ituri, to ensure that it does not fall off the public policy radar screen due to the departure of the Interim Emergency Multinational Force (IEMF) and the distraction of other crises on the continent.

The military engagement of the first

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Explosive status quo in Chechnya

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In the run-up to the presidential elections in Chechnya on 5 October, it has become clear that the elections will not play a stabilising role and their legitimacy will not be recognised by many key actors. The removal of the real alternative candidates from the race, the wide use of federal administrative and media resources to promote one candidate, and the lack of security for proper monitoring of the voting process will contribute to the emergence of new destabilising and conflict-generating factors in the Chechen Republic: (a) Hardline opposition leaders, including
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Liberia: Managing Taylor's departure - a crucial phase

INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Security Council Resolution 1497 from August 1st signals the willingness of the international community to intervene in the Liberian war of self destruction. The Security Council decided to support the US initiated Resolution and by a vote of 12 in favor (with France, Germany and Mexico abstaining) authorized the deployment of a multinational force in Liberia which would be followed by a UN Stabilization Force. "I
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Urgent measures for Ituri Region, DRC

The deployment of a multinational peace-keeping force for Ituri, a region in north-eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, signals a key turning point in the DRC peace process. The interim administration of Ituri, created after the conclusion of the Ituri Pacification Commission, is the only ethnically balanced and broadly supported institution capable of acting as a catalyst for reconciliation. While waiting for the arrival of the multinational force, members of the interim administration are currently protected in the MONUC compound, their lives threatened by armed militias.
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Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire: Saving the Peace after the Peace Accord


Executive Summary
Following the Linas-Marcossis-Kléber Peace Accord (also referred to as the Paris Peace Accord - see appendix for a summary), Côte d'Ivoire is again facing the abyss of civil war. The concessions made at the peace talks in Paris by the Ivorian government have emboldened the rebels. On the other hand, the government itself, the security forces and political elite, supported by popular protest in Abidjan, are rejecting key aspects of the agreement. The key question facing Côte d'Ivoire today is whether peace and the progress made in Paris can be salvaged.

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Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Our previous policy brief stressed the likelihood of resumed hostilities between the Ivorian government forces (FANCI) and the rebel Patriotic Movement of Côte d'Ivoire (MPCI). We equally anticipated the eruption of violence in the western part of the country if General Guei's supporters were to avenge his death. The current situation is in line with WARN's analysis.

Five new developments are now increasing the likelihood of a full-fledged civil war in Côte d'Ivoire:

1. Two new rebellions have started

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WARN Policy Brief: Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In our previous overview of the crisis in Côte d'Ivoire, we cautioned the high risk of the current crisis degenerating into a north-south ethnic and religious conflict. The evolution of events in Côte d'Ivoire has buttressed our concern that the conflict might assume ethnic dimensions sooner rather than later. However, temporary respite followed after the rebels decided to sign a cease-fire agreement on 17 October 2002. In a radio-television broadcast on 18 October, President Gbagbo indicated his government's willingness to respect the truce. Formal