SUMMARY & ASSESSMENT

By the end of September, AOG initiated attacks had decreased by 32% compared to 0.3 period last year, ANSF-IMF activity levels had retracted collectively by 24%, conflict-related civilian deaths were down by 14%, the total number of NGO security incidents had fallen by 20% and the total number of NGO casualties (7 staff killed and 13 injured) had dropped by 62% and is currently at a four-year low.

SUMMARY & ASSESSMENT

AOG attack volumes have decreased by 43% in comparison to Q1 2011 providing the first reliable indicator that the conflict may be entering a period of regression after years of sustained, and compounded, growth by all actors in the field. Despite this, one must still consider them an ascendant power, as they themselves clearly do, and a key question remains as to whether this lack of activity is a deliberate act and if so, why. As last year was characterised by AOG doing more earlier; this year has begun with them doing less later.

Jan 1st - Sep 30th 2011

SUMMARY & ASSESSMENT

The third quarter data continues to support a nuinber of well established findings that nevertheless bear repeating. First, that humanitarian agencies are not deliberately targeted at a national/policy level by any of the parties to the conflict but, second, that due to an apparent inability of the lEA, and increasingly IMF, to prevent transgressions in the field, they continue to be victimized though accidental, collateral or ignorant attacks which often result in fatalities.

YOU NEED TO KNOW

• Numerous suicide / complex attacks within Kabul

• Helmand remains most kinetic province in the country

• Contined high NGO incident rate for June

• 2 NGO national staff fatalities this period

YOU NEED TO KNOW

Sustained AOG attack in Kandahar City

Deterioration of security in Ghazni

The IEA increases its efforts in Nuristan, government responds in kind

Transition remains on schedule

COUNTRY SUMMARY

- Complex attacks within population centres

- Reduction / reorientation of ISAF within East

- Civilian casualties

- Numerous & diverse NGO incidents

- Regular suicide bomb attacks against security forces in Kabul

- Geographically and compositionally diverse NGO incidents within the North

- AOG migration from the South into the Western and Central Regions

Throughout 2010 NGOs were involved in 126 incidents in which 28 people were killed and additional 33 injured. 22 deaths were attributed to AOG, three to criminals and additional three died collaterally in IMF/AOG clashes. While these figures represent a 27% fall in the total volume of attacks from 2009 (172 cases) they also show an alarming 42% increase in fatalities.