Attachments
Below-average Deyr production and high local cereal prices expected
Key Messages
- Food security outcomes throughout Somalia are likely to be worse than previously expected, following significantly below-average Deyr rainfall. Of greatest concern are poor farming households in southern and central Somalia and poor pastoralists in the northeast. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely by May 2017. If the 2017 Gu season is below average, as currently forecast, further deterioration in food security is possible.
- Rainfall in October and November was 50-70 percent below average across most of Somalia. In many areas, vegetation conditions are the worst on record and January Deyr harvests are likely to be significantly below average.
- A second consecutive below-average crop harvest is expected to put upward pressure on local staple cereal prices. Already, sharp price increases have occurred in Baidoa and Qorioley between October and November. In addition, poor crop production will likely lower agricultural labor opportunities and wage labor income.