Kenya Food Security Outlook, October 2015 to March 2016

Above-average October to December short rains expected to increase food security

KEY MESSAGES

• Most areas of western and central Kenya are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as the long rains harvest and imports continue to keep markets well supplied. Food security is likely to improve further following the start of the short rains in October and the start of the long rains harvest in the northern Rift Valley. However, above-average October to December short rains may result in damage to crops and post- harvest losses.

• In pastoral areas, above-average short rains are likely to increase the availability of rangeland resources and eventually increase livestock productivity, increasing both milk production and income from livestock sales. Improvements in household food consumption are expected starting in November. Most pastoral households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while some will move to None (IPC Phase 1) by December. Areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in October, which received hardly any rain in 2015, are expected to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as herds slowly recover and households gain better access to labor markets.

• In marginal agricultural areas, the likely above-average October to December short rains will lead to an increase in area planted and encourage more investment of time and resources into agriculture. Higher demand for agricultural labor will increase household incomes, increasing food access from markets almost immediately. After short-cycle crops like legumes are harvested by December, households will have food from their own production. Most households are expected to move to None (IPC Phase 1) by December and remain in None (IPC Phase 1) through at least March.

• During the forecast above-average October to December short rains, flash floods in lowland areas, river flooding, and lake shore flooding are likely. Flooding will displace households, increase the incidence of water- and vector-borne diseases, and limit physical and economic access to markets. Some flooded areas may move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3).