Africa: Predicted Probability of Meningtis Epidemic Experience (as of 2003)
A meningitis risk map derived from an environmentally-driven model of predicted probability of epidemic experience is shown above. The model is based on absolute humidity profiles and land-cover type. The WHO proposes the use of epidemic thresholds for the early detection of epidemics and improved control responses. Defining an 'at-risk' area therefore has important implications for increased monitoring activities and epidemic preparedness.
Users should note that these data
are based on a statistical model that exhibited a sensitivity and specificity
of 83% and 67%, respectively. It did not include the impact of nonenvironmental
factors likely to be related to meningitis epidemics, such as population
movement, vaccination coverage and recent epidemics in the area. More information
about this model and its limitations may be found in the reference below.
Reference: Molesworth, A. M., L. E. Cuevas, S. J. Connor, A. P. Morse and M. C. Thomson, 2003: Environmental Risk and Meningitis Epidemics in Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 9(10): 1287-1293.