Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook February 6 – February 12, 2014
Above-average monsoon season rainfall was observed across central southern Africa during the past week.
1) Portions of Tanzania have experienced below average seasonal rainfall since late November. Poorly distributed rains since early December have also led to developing dry conditions in the Morogoro and Pwani provinces further east. The anomalous dryness has already negatively impacted vegetation conditions in the region.
2) Anomalously heavy rainfall during the month of January has led to saturated ground conditions throughout many local areas in western Madagascar. Locally heavy rainfall forecast in the region may trigger flooding during the next week.
3) Abundant rains over the past several weeks have led to elevated river levels along the Púnguè, Búzi and Save Rivers in central Mozambique. Localized flooding has occurred that has inundated crop fields, damaged infrastructure, displaced local populations and isolated towns. River levels are expected to remain above alert level during the next week as additional heavy rain forecast.
4) Torrential rain during the past several weeks across central and northern Zimbabwe, including last week where weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm, has left grounds saturated. With additional heavy rain forecast, the risk for localized flash flooding across central and northern Zimbabwe is elevated.