Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET, August 9 – August 15, 2012
- Torrential rains continue across the western portions of West Africa.
- Widespread heavy rains were observed across eastern Africa.
- Hatching eggs and low-density locusts increase the potential for locust outbreak over many regions.
1) Heavy downpours have resulted in fatalities and displaced population over North and Central Darfur regions of Sudan during the past week. Flooding potential remains as heavy rains are forecast to continue during the next week.
2) For several consecutive weeks, torrential rains have fallen over Guinea-Bissau, Guinea Conakry, and Sierra Leone, causing flooding in the region. A relief to the wetness is unlikely as heavy rains are forecast to continue, heightening the risk for flooding during the next week.
3) Abundant rains have caused flooding and displaced more than three thousand people over the Mambilla Plateau of eastern Nigeria during the past week. The heavy rains forecast could exacerbate the ground conditions and trigger new flooding during the next week.
4) Above-average rains over the past two weeks have substantially increased river water levels across eastern and central Sudan and northwestern Ethiopia. The forecasted, continued rains grow concerns for flooding.
5) The anomalous poleward position of the Inter-Tropical front has favored the breeding conditions for desert locusts over the southern Mauritania-western Mali border, central Niger-eastern Mali, and east-central Sudan. The continuation of above-average rainfall during August could increase the potential for locust outbreaks across many regions. (Note - Map in 2 pages)