Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook September 26 – October 2, 2013
Some relief to dryness is expected across the Gulf of Guinea region during the end of September.
1) A pronounced late start of seasonal rainfall in July has delayed planting by approximately one month and has reduced crop yields across many parts of Sudan. The onset of continuous seasonal rainfall during mid to late September now remains critical for several local areas that have planted late.
2) Frequent and above-average rains over the past several weeks have resulted in large rainfall surpluses across far western West Africa. Locally heavy rains are again forecast across Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Senegal, The Gambia, Mali, and southern Mauritania during the upcoming outlook period. This could continue to exacerbate saturated ground conditions over many areas.
3) Since June, an insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries and has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and in southwestern Nigeria. Although seasonal rainfall is expected to increase, below average rainfall totals have already been observed since the beginning of September. Average to locally heavy rainfall is forecast during the end of September, which is expected to relieve dryness. However, the return of heavy rainfall in the upper basin of the Niger River potentially may lead to downstream flooding in Nigeria.