Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook October 3 – October 9, 2013
Heavy rains were observed across dry areas in bi-modal regions along the Gulf of Guinea.
1) A pronounced late start of seasonal rainfall in July has delayed planting by approximately one month and has reduced crop yields across many parts of Sudan. The onset of continuous seasonal rainfall during September and October now remains critical for several local areas that have planted late. However, with seasonal rains quickly coming to an end, little time remains for additional rainfall.
2) Frequent and above-average rains over the past several weeks have resulted in large rainfall surpluses across far western West Africa. Locally heavy rains are again forecast across Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia during the upcoming outlook period. This could continue to exacerbate saturated ground conditions over many areas.
3) Since June, insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries and has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and in southwestern Nigeria. Although seasonal rainfall is expected to increase, below average rainfall totals have already been observed since the beginning of September. Average rainfall is forecast during the beginning of October which is expected to relieve some dryness.