Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook August 29 – September 4, 2013
A slight reduction in rainfall was observed across West Africa, while seasonal rains continued over eastern Africa during the past week.
1) The onset of the rainy season was delayed by more than four weeks across southeastern Sudan, northwestern Ethiopia, and southern Eritrea. This has delayed planting, reduced planting areas, and negatively impacted crops across the region. Though an increase in rainfall has been observed since the beginning of August, seasonal rainfall deficits have persisted. Light to moderate rains are forecast during the next outlook period, likely maintaining season to-date moisture deficits.
2) Frequent and above-average rains over the past several weeks have resulted in large rainfall surpluses across far western West Africa. Additional heavy rains are forecast across Guinea Conakry and southern Mali during the next outlook period. This could trigger new flooding and exacerbate ground conditions over many areas.
3) Since June, an insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to growing rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries. The resulting dryness has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and affected maize crops in southernmost Nigeria. Increased rains are expected during the next week, although they may not be sufficient to eliminate accumulated moisture deficits.
4) Consistent, heavy rains since mid-July have caused flooding, resulting in fatalities, infrastructure damages, and displaced people in many local areas of north-central Ethiopia, including the Oromia, North and South Wollo, North Shoa, and Gonder regions. In Sudan, the heavy rains since early August and continuing abundant rains over highland Ethiopia, which have led to inundation and further increased river water levels elevate the potentials for flooding over the Blue Nile, Kassala, Sinar, Khartoum, El Gazeira, and River Nile states.