Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook December 19 – December 25, 2013
Increased rains during the past week have helped to replenish soil moisture in eastern Southern Africa, while limited rains have worsened dryness in northern Kenya and southern Somalia.
1) Though an increase in rainfall was observed in southern Kenya over the past few weeks, the delayed onset and uneven distribution of the October-December rainy season have already negatively impacted ground conditions over northern Kenya and parts of southern Somalia. With the season already coming to an end, recovery is unlikely.
2) Consistent heavy rains over the past three weeks have eliminated moisture deficits across many local areas of Tanzania. However, uneven distribution of rainfall since November has already resulted in deteriorated ground conditions over the central parts of the country. The forecast light to locally moderate rains during the next week may help to relieve dryness.
3) A prolonged delay of the onset of the rainy season and an erratic rainfall distribution during November have resulted in developing dryness across eastern Zambia, southern Malawi, and western Mozambique. Heavy and above-average rains are forecast over eastern Southern Africa during the next week, which should help to alleviate dryness.