Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET October 25 – October 31, 2012

1) With seasonal rains ending and as vegetation dries out, locust swarms have formed in Chad and are expected to form shortly in Niger and Mali. Swarms are then expected to migrate towards the north as well as potentially into cropping areas in western/central Mali.

2) Torrential rain from localized thunderstorms caused flash flooding in portions of northern and southern Somalia during the past month. During the next week, the risk for isolated, heavy rainfall remains across Somalia, southern Ethiopia and eastern Kenya. Flash flooding could occur in affected areas while additional rainfall across the upper Shabelle River could cause river flooding.

3) Several weeks of above-average and heavy rains across southern Nigeria and Cameroon led to widespread flooding across the region and elevated river levels resulting in the closures of highways, displacement of local populations and damages to infrastructure. With heavy rain forecasted, the risk for additional flooding is elevated.

Note: Map in 2 pages