07 Nov 2013: Philippines – Tropical Cyclone HAIYAN
POSITION, TRACK and FORECAST
• On 07 Nov at 00:00 UTC, HAIYAN (called YOLANDA in the Philippines) had become a very powerful Typhoon while moving always towards the central Philippines, with a max. sust. wind speed of 278 km/h (equivalent to Category 5 in the Saffir-Simpson scale). At 06:00 UTC its intensity was unchanged and its centre was ca. 675 km ESE of Leyte island. (GDACS)
• According to the 06:00 UTC data, it is forecast to approach the coasts of the eastern Visayas and possibly make landfall in Leyte in the early morning of 08 Nov (UTC).
• It is then forecast to proceed WNW crossing the Visayas and emerge in the South China Sea late on the same day, having weakened slightly.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
• HAIYAN is expected to affect regions in its path with very strong, possibly destructive winds, heavy to intense rainfall and storm surge.
• As of 07:00 UTC on 07 Nov, PAGASA has issued a Public Storm Warning Signal #4 (winds of more than 185 km/h expected in at least 12h) for Leyte, Samar and Biliran islands. Winds of this strength can “severely damage most residential buildings of mixed construction” (PAGASA). For provinces under PSWS#3 and PSWS#2, see map. For population exposed to Typhoon-strength winds, see next page.
• JRC calculations based on 7 Nov 00:00 UTC data indicate a possible storm surge of the order of 2m or more in the coast of eastern Leyte and NW Capiz province (see map) in the morning of 8 Nov (UTC).
• Intense rainfall (10-30mm per hour within the 600km diameter of the cyclone) could also cause dangerous flash floods and landslides.
• In view of the strength of HAIYAN, preventive evacuations have been ordered in the regions close to the possible landfall area. According to NDRRMC, 3 800 people have been evacuated, ca. 3 000 of which in the area of Tacloban city in Leyte.
• NDRRMC Operations Centre is in Red Alert Status and stand-by funds have been set aside for relief operations.
POPULATION and VULNERABILITY
• The track of HAIYAN passes over a number of densely populated regions – see map. GDACS indicates a total of more than 10 million people exposed to Typhoon force winds (light red area in the main map on the left) – in this case winds of more than 200 km/h.
• The islands of Cebu and Bohol, lying under or very close to the Typhoon’s track have been hit by a 7.1M earthquake on 15 Oct. More than 50 000 houses were damaged and more than 3 million people were affected. Around 5 000 people still living in tents in these areas are reported (AFP) to be under evacuation ahead of HAIYAN.
• Negros Occidental, Antique and Cebu provinces were affected also by floods caused by heavy rainfall in the first 10 days of October.
• The government has also expressed concern over possible lahars (volcanic ash mudflows) caused by heavy rainfall in the area of the volcanoes Mayon and Bulusan (see map).