This report identifies the current trends, events, and short term forecast associated with the 2012 monsoon season.

OVERVIEW

• Monsoon rainfall in Pakistan during the month of July was 43 per cent below average.

• The heavy monsoon spell experienced from 3 to 5 August resulted in the loss of lives and livelihoods in north-eastern Punjab and the adjoining regions.

• Mild to moderate drought conditions prevail along the Balochistan coast and south-western regions.

• More rainfall is expected from 9 to15 August across northern Paksitan, especially in north-eastern Punjab.

CURRENT SITUATION

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) indicates that monsoon the rainfall was 43 per cent below average in July. The provincial rainfall patterns for the same period were estimated at 91 per cent below average for Sindh, 34 per cent for Balochistan, 29 per cent for Punjab and 43 per cent for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

As of 8 August, the rains accounted for 34 percent of the monthly monsoon average. The PMD reports a relatively mild impact of the El Nino phenomenon, associated with warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which results in reduced rainfall in the sub-continent.

However, parts of central and upper Punjab, and adjoining regions of AJK and KP, received a relatively strong monsoon spell from 3 to 5 August. Heavy rain was also experienced in Sibi District and adjoining areas of Balochistan from 6 to 7 August.

The Indian monsoon season indicates nearly 20 per cent below normal rainfall so far, and the Indian Metrological Department has indicated the possibility of drought in parts of the country. There are concerns about low crop productivity according to media reports.