Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook August 21 – August 27, 2014
Increased rains observed in West Africa during the past observation period.
Consistent heavy rains triggered flooding, destroyed houses, and thousands of displaced people in Sudan.
1) Inadequate rainfall distribution since early June has delayed planting and negatively affected crop development in northeastern Nigeria. Although an increase in rainfall was observed recently, continued favorable rainfall amounts are needed to overcome long-term deficits.
2) Although much of western Ethiopia has experienced favorable amounts of rainfall during the last two months and recent rains have improved in quantity in eastern Ethiopia, poorly distributed rains in parts of eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and northern Oromia have been consistently below-average since June.
3) A continued sluggish start to seasonal rainfall across much of Senegal has led to deteriorating ground conditions and growing early season rainfall deficits dating back to June. Suppressed rains are forecast to return during the next week, which may worsen conditions.
4) A delayed start of the seasonal rains has negatively impacted cropping activities along the Mauritania-Mali border. Despite a recent increase in rainfall over the region, continued adequate rainfall amounts are needed to improve moisture availability.
5) Heavy rains during the past few weeks have destroyed shelters, flooded producing areas, and affected several people over many parts of the Darfur and Kordofan areas of Sudan. With moderate to heavy rains forecast to continue next week, additional flooding is likely.
6) Heavy downpours during the past few weeks have caused flooding, infrastructure damages, injuries, and displaced people across the Khartoum, River Nile, and Al Gazeira states of Sudan. Potential for flooding remains high as heavy rains are forecast to continue over upstream Ethiopian highland.