Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook September 12 – September 18, 2013

Map
from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 11 Sep 2013

1) The onset of the rainy season was delayed by more than four weeks across southeastern Sudan, northwestern Ethiopia, and southern Eritrea. This has delayed planting, reduced planting areas, and negatively impacted crops across the region. Though an increase in rainfall has been observed since the beginning of August, seasonal rainfall deficits have been sustained over many local areas.

2) Frequent and above-average rains over the past several weeks have resulted in large rainfall surpluses across far western West Africa. Additional heavy rains are forecast across Guinea Conakry and southern Mali during the next outlook period. This could exacerbate ground conditions over many areas.

3) Since June, an insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries. The resulting dryness has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and affected maize crops in southwestern Nigeria. Some relief is expected during the upcoming week, with increased shower activities.

4) Heavy amounts of precipitation in late August led to flooding across northern Nigeria, and increased water discharges at the Kainji, Shiroro, and Jebba dams in the southern Kebbi, and Niger states of the country. This has elevated the risk for basin inundation along the Niger River for many local areas downstream.