Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook January 9 – January 15, 2014
Significantly heavy and well distributed rainfall fell across much of southern Africa, leading to an increased risk for flooding in the Caprivi Strip region, while alleviating many anomalously dry conditions further east.
1) Portions of Tanzania have experienced below average seasonal rainfall since late November. Poorly distributed rains since early December has led to developing dry conditions in the Morogoro and Pwani provinces further east. The anomalous dryness has already negatively impacted vegetation conditions in the region.
2) After a prolonged delay of the onset of the rainy season across many parts of eastern Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and western Mozambique, significantly heavy rainfall during the last several weeks has largely neutralized moisture deficits in the region. However, some local areas in southern Malawi have not experienced the same seasonal recovery, as moisture deficits remain.
3) Four consecutive weeks of above-average rains have resulted in large rainfall surpluses covering a broad area surrounding the Caprivi Strip. Many local areas have experienced more than twice their normal rainfall accumulation since early December, leading to an increased risk for inundation along the Zambezi River. A suppression of rainfall is expected during the upcoming outlook period, which should help alleviate ground conditions.
4) Little to no seasonal rainfall since mid-November has resulted in large rainfall deficits along the southwestern coastline of Madagascar. The magnitude of these early season moisture shortages may likely negatively impacting cropping activities in the region. An increase in rainfall is expected during the upcoming week.