Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook January 16 – January 22, 2014
Average to above-average rainfall continues across southeastern Africa, replenishing ground moisture for many parts of Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique.
A large scale suppression of rainfall over southwestern Africa is expected to provide some relief to saturated ground conditions across the Caprivi Strip region.
1) Portions of Tanzania have experienced below average seasonal rainfall since late November. Poorly distributed rains since early December have also led to developing dry conditions in the Morogoro and Pwani provinces further east. The anomalous dryness has already negatively impacted vegetation conditions in the region.
2) Four consecutive weeks of above-average rains have resulted in large rainfall surpluses covering a broad area surrounding the Caprivi Strip. Many local areas have experienced more than twice their normal rainfall accumulation since early December, leading to an increased risk for inundation along the Zambezi River. Although rainfall has recently decreased throughout the region, there remains a risk for flooding in January.
3) Consistent, heavy rains over the past several days have resulted in flooding, affecting nearly 1200 residents in Morondava of western Madagascar. The abundant rains have also reportedly cut off roads across the Manja district of the country.
4) Winter temperature and moisture conditions remain conducive for a high risk of locust swarms to winter-irrigated crops in the River Nile and Red Sea provinces of northeastern Sudan, and western Eritrea.