Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET January 31 – February 6, 2013

Map
from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 30 Jan 2013

1) During January, several weeks of enhanced precipitation has led to localized flooding, and elevated river levels in the Zambezi, Busi, and Pungue Rivers of Mozambique. Locally heavy rains associated with tropical moisture from the Mozambique Channel are forecast across parts of eastern Zambia, Malawi and northern Mozambique during the next seven days. With above-average ground moisture in place, this increases the risk for flooding in the region during the upcoming outlook period.

2) Extreme rainfall along the Limpopo River during the last two weeks has resulted in damages to infrastructure and crops, thousands of displaced people, and numerous fatalities in the region during late January. Some relief to heavy rains is expected over much of South Africa, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique; however any additional precipitation may trigger additional flooding and exacerbate ground conditions.

3) The development of Tropical Storm “Felleng” over the southern Indian Ocean is expected to impact the eastern coastline of Madagascar during the earlier portion of the outlook period. Although the center of the storm is not expected to make direct landfall, heavy rains and high winds could negatively impact the region.