Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET February 28 - March 6, 2013

Map
from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 27 Feb 2013

1) Heavy rain, during the past several weeks, has led to flooding, displacement of local population and cholera outbreaks in Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia. Locally heavy rains are forecast across parts of Zambia, Malawi and northern Mozambique for a sixth consecutive week. With above-average ground moisture in place, the risk for flooding in the region remains high.

2) Poorly distributed rain has led to the degradation of ground conditions in southern Angola and northern Namibia. The poor conditions have already led to livestock losses in Namibia. The below-average, light rains over the past thirty days have led to rainfall deficits exceeding 100 mm. With little rain forecast in Namibia and southern Angola for the next week, rainfall deficits are expected to grow, further drying ground conditions and negatively impacting cropping activities and livestock.

3) Poor seasonal rains have led to water restrictions in southern Botswana and delayed planting and deteriorating livestock conditions in the North West province of South Africa. Meanwhile, little to no rainfall since the second dekad of January has led to a fast development of thirty-day rainfall deficits exceeding 50mm in western Botswana, Zimbabwe and parts of northern South Africa and southern Mozambique. With light rain (<10mm) forecast for the next week, a fourth to fifth consecutive week of dry conditions is possible. This will increase rainfall deficits, maintain dry conditions and further negatively impact crops and livestock.