Madagascar: Predicted moderate tropical Madagascar Storm Hellen trajectory (as of 30 March 2014)

While Tropical Cyclone Hellen is still not expected to make landfall over north-west Madagascar, it has greatly intensified and, contrary to yesterday’s forecast, is now predicted to come very close to the Malagasy coast, possibly touching or even making landfall over Besalampy district on the evening of 01 April as a Tropical Cyclone, before moving back into the Mozambique Channel. The regions of Boeny, Betsiboka and Melaky, with a combined population of around one million people, are on yellow alert. Attached is a map showing latest predicted trajectory.

While it is difficult to predict impact, particularly as there have been no past cyclone trajectories similar to that of Hellen’s, thousands of people could be displaced and anywhere from 25,000 people to 70,000 people affected in the districts of Majunga, Mitsinjo, Soalala and Besalamy.

The regions of Boeny and Melaky, in which the four above-mentioned districts are located, activated its contingency plan on 27 March. The National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) is monitoring the situation and remains in close contact with local authorities. BNGRC has also reactivated its recently developed Logistical and Strategic Response Plan. The next coordination meeting will be held tomorrow, 31 April, where it is expected that the following activities will be agreed on for immediate implementation:
The deployment of a response team to Besalampy district; The activation of an operational base in Majunga district; The deployment of pre-positioned relief supplies by road from Antananarivo, Toamasina and elsewhere to Majunga, and by boat from Majunga to Mitsinjo, Soalala and Besalamy; and The activation of logistic support for a rapid aerial assessment.

Hellen passed the Comoros as a moderate tropical cyclone on 29 March, coming within 50 km of the island of Mohéli (Comoros is composed of three islands: Grand Comoros, Mohéli and Anjouan), with wind speeds of 105 km/h and 5 m high waves recorded. The yellow alert has subsequently been downgraded to green and the airport reopened. On Grande Comores, one person remains missing and the road between the towns of Bandamadji and Domba has been damaged. On Mohéli, one person has died and the villages of Zirindani, Tsamia and Ouallah have been flooded, with landslides reported in Nioumachioi, Miringoni and Hamaba. Reports of damage to houses have also been received from Djandro, Itsamia, Kangani, Nioumachio and Boingoma, with electricity supply down in Djandro region. On Anjouan, the villages of Ousta, Salamani, Ouzini, Hassimpao and Vouani have been flooded and the villages of Koni Djodjo and Chiconi hit by landslides. The road between Domoni and Ngandzale remains inaccessible. Displaced people are being hosted by relatives. Authorities are still conducting damage assessments, which will provide more information on needs and assistance required.

As previously reported, the system that eventually became Hellen caused heavy rains over coastal areas of northern Mozambique late last week (specifically in Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces), the impacts of which are currently being assessed. National authorities have already deployed to support provincial structures, specifically in shelter, and partners who have pre-positioned relief supplies in these areas have been requested to be on standby to support the response.