Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook June 5 – June 11, 2014
Rainfall forecasts suggest no respite in wetness across far western West Africa during the next outlook period.
An irregular distribution of rainfall was observed in Eastern Africa during the March-May rainy season.
1) Consistently low and infrequent seasonal rainfall across some bimodal areas of northern Tanzania as well as western Kenya, northeastern Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, and into the southern rift valley of Ethiopia have resulted in strengthening moisture deficits since late March. The poor rains have negatively impacted livestock, led to the replanting of crops, and a reduction in crop yields. Suppressed rains expected during June are likely to worsen crops and pastoral conditions in the region.
2) Sporadic rainfall during the past several months has led to developing rainfall deficits and dryness over the Hirraan, Galgaduud and Mudug regions of southern and central Somalia and the Somali region of Ethiopia. The dryness has led to food/water shortages and livestock fatalities. Little rains forecast should provide some relief during the next week, though dryness will remain.
3) Frequent and above-average rainfall since May has resulted in oversaturation of the grounds of many regions of the far western West Africa, including Guinea Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Mali, and western Cote d’Ivoire. There is an increased chance for localized flooding as heavy downpours are forecast during the next week.
4) Poorly-distributed rainfall since mid-April had led to a rapid deterioration of ground conditions throughout portions of southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania. As seasonal rainfall is expected to decrease in June, sustained moisture deficits are likely to negatively impact cropping activities in the region.