Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook January 2 – January 8, 2014

 Heavy rains are expected in eastern Southern Africa, increasing risks for localized flooding during the next outlook period.

1. Both delayed start and poor distribution of rainfall since the beginning of the October-December rainy season have led to moisture deficits and below-average ground conditions across northern Kenya and parts of southern Somalia. With the season already coming to an end, the potential for recovery is unlikely.

2. While the western parts and bimodal sector of northern Tanzania have received above-average rains, the east-central portions of the country have experienced poor rains since late November. This has already negatively impacted vegetation conditions in the region. Moderate to locally heavy rains are expected during the next week, which may help to partially reduce rainfall deficits.

3. A prolonged delay of the onset of the rainy season and an erratic rainfall distribution during November have resulted in developing dryness across eastern Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and western Mozambique. Heavy downpours are expected during the next week, which could help to alleviate dryness in the region.

4. Insufficient rains since mid-November has resulted in large rainfall deficits, likely negatively impacting cropping activities across southern Mozambique and along coastal southwestern Madagascar. The forecast light to moderate rains could help to sustain moisture deficits.

5. Four consecutive weeks of above-average rains have led to large rainfall surpluses along the Caprivi Strip of eastern Namibia. With the forecast abundant rains during the next outlook period, the risks for flooding are elevated.

6. The development of tropical weather disturbance is expected to produce heavy downpours, potentially triggering flooding over the dry portions of eastern Zimbabwe, central Mozambique, and western Madagascar.