Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET December 13 – December 19, 2012
1) Moisture deficits remain following a mid-season dry spell for northern Kenya and southern Somalia that occurred in early November and recent drier than average conditions for much of eastern Africa. With a shortened recovery period in the next several weeks for northern Kenya and southern Somalia and an extended period of dryness for southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania, this could result in a deterioration of pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions.
2) Combined with a poor rainfall performance from last year, low and poorly distributed rainfall in November has resulted in early season dryness throughout parts of Botswana, and the Free State, and North West States of South Africa. A recent increase in rainfall quantity and frequency has reduced rainfall deficits and improved ground conditions, although the impact from earlier dry conditions still remains across portions of northern central South Africa.
3) Strong thunderstorms resulted in torrential daily rainfall and hail across the KwaZulu-Natal region of South Africa. The copious amount of rain has resulted in flash flooding, which has caused the deaths of multiple people and damaged roads and infrastructure. With additional heavy rain forecast during the next week, the risk for flash flooding is elevated.