Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook September 5 – September 11, 2013

Map
from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 04 Sep 2013

1) The onset of the rainy season was delayed by more than four weeks across southeastern Sudan, northwestern Ethiopia, and southern Eritrea. This has delayed planting, reduced planting areas, and negatively impacted crops across the region. Though an increase in rainfall has been observed since the beginning of August, seasonal rainfall deficits have been sustained over many local areas.

2) Frequent and above-average rains over the past several weeks have resulted in large rainfall surpluses across far western West Africa. Additional heavy rains are forecast across Guinea Conakry and southern Mali during the next outlook period. This is likely to trigger new flooding and exacerbate ground conditions over many areas.

3) Since June, an insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to growing rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries. The resulting dryness has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and affected maize crops in southwestern Nigeria. Some relief is expected during the upcoming week, with increased shower activity.

4) Heavy amounts of precipitation in late August led to flooding across the northern Nigeria, and increased water discharges at the Kainji, Shiroro, and Jebba dams in the southern Kebbi, and Niger states of the country. This has elevated the risk for basin inundation along the Niger River for many local areas downstream.