Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook September 19 – September 25, 2013

Map
from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 18 Sep 2013

 As above-average rainfall expected to continue over parts of Guinea, a large scale suppression of season precipitation is forecast throughout the Gulf of Guinea region.

1) A pronounced late start of seasonal rainfall in July has delayed planting by approximately one month and has reduced crop yields across many parts of Sudan. The onset of continuous seasonal rainfall during mid to late September now remains critical for several local areas that have planted late.

2) Frequent and above-average rains over the past several weeks have resulted in large rainfall surpluses across far western West Africa. Locally heavy rains are again forecast across Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Senegal, The Gambia, Mali, and southern Mauritania during the upcoming outlook period. This could continue to exacerbate saturated ground conditions over many areas.

3) Since June, an insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries. The resulting dryness has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and affected maize crops in southwestern Nigeria. Suppressed rainfall forecast is expected to worsen dryness for several bimodal areas.