Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook November 14 – November 20, 2013
Following a week of torrential rainfall, the continuation of above-average precipitation in mid-November is likely to sustain the risk of flooding, and lead to adverse ground impacts across many parts of Somalia and eastern Ethiopia.
1) Torrential rains from the passage of a tropical cyclone across northern Somalia, as well as, a broad area of low pressure over Somalia during the last week is likely to result in localized flooding, damages to infrastructure, livestock losses, displacement of populations, and downstream river inundation across parts Somalia and eastern Ethiopia. A continuation of locally heavy rainfall is expected across the region during the next week.
2) Significantly heavy rainfall along the border between southeastern South Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya has led to flooding during the last week. The Jonglei State of South Sudan has been the most affected by floods, inaccessible roads, and the displacement of thousands of people.
3) Despite an increase in precipitation during the last seven days, many local areas in southern Somalia and eastern Kenya have experienced a delayed start of seasonal rainfall. Little to no rainfall in October has resulted in considerable moisture deficits, which could negatively impact the development of crops, and pastoral conditions in the region.