Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET April 4 – April 10, 2013

Map
from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 03 Apr 2013 View Original
  • Heavy precipitation continues across East Africa; however many local areas in western Ethiopia are experiencing a growing delay to seasonal rainfall with developing moisture deficits.

1) Since the beginning of the year, poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has led to deteriorating ground conditions, stressed vegetation and negatively impacted cropping activities and livestock throughout many parts of southwestern Africa. Many local areas in Angola and Namibia have experienced less than half of their normal rainfall accumulation since January, as pronounced dry spells have affected parts of Zambia, Botswana and South Africa since February. The likelihood for recovery is minimal as the southern African monsoon season is coming to an end.

2) After rainfall surpluses during January, rainfall has significantly reduced since mid-February. This has led to developing dryness, with rainfall deficits exceeding 100 mm over the Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces of northern Mozambique over the past thirty days. Dryness could persist and potentially negatively impact crops as light rain is forecast over the next outlook period.

3) Since the beginning of March, enhanced rainfall has in the Greater Horn has not been distributed over the northern and western portions of Ethiopia. As a result, the development of early to mid-season moisture deficits is likely to continue to negatively impact cropping activities in parts of the Oromia and eastern Amhara regions.

4) Above-average rains over the past six weeks have resulted in moisture surpluses favorable for agricultural activities across parts of Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin,
Nigeria, and Cameroon. Average to above-average rain is expected to continue over the outlook period, sustaining adequate moisture across the region.

5) Combined with significantly heavy rainfall during last week, enhanced rainfall forecast over eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia during the outlook period elevates the risk for flooding along the Shabelle and Jubba River basins.

6) Several consecutive days of moderate to heavy precipitation has led to localized flooding, damages to infrastructure and fatalities throughout many parts of Kenya. Torrential amounts of precipitation are again forecast in many of these areas in southwestern and central Kenya during the next seven days.