Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook August 22 – August 28, 2013
A favorable distribution of rainfall was observed across a wide portion of Africa during the past week.
1) A delayed start of the rainfall season across northwestern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, and bordering areas in Sudan has negatively impacted cropping activities, including planting. After this past week’s heavy rainfall, moderate rains are forecast during the next outlook period, which could help to alleviate dryness over the region.
2) Above-average rains since mid-July have resulted in accumulated rainfall surpluses across Guinea Conakry and Sierra Leone. There is an increased chance for heavy and above-average rain throughout the region during the next week, raising concerns for localized flooding.
3) Since June, an insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to growing rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries. This has resulted in reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and deteriorated ground conditions in west-central Nigeria. Increased rains are expected over the region during the next week, although they may not be sufficient to eliminate moisture deficits.
4) Heavy and above-average rains since the beginning of August have caused fatalities, infrastructure damages, and displaced people in several states of Sudan, including the Khartoum,
River Nile, Blue Nile, El Gazeira, and Red Sea.
Additional moderate rains are expected during the next week, which may further exacerbate ground conditions.
5) Heavy rains during the past week have caused flooding, which left fatalities and displaced people in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. With the cumulative rainfall surpluses and forecast heavy rains during the next outlook period, conditions on the ground are likely to worsen.