Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET March 21 – March 27, 2013

Map
from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 20 Mar 2013

1) Since the beginning of the year, several consecutive weeks of below-average rainfall has worsened ground conditions and negatively impacted cropping activities and livestock throughout northern Namibia and southern Angola. Many local areas have experienced less than half of their normal rainfall accumulation since January. With little to no rain forecast during the upcoming outlook period, relief is unlikely as the seasonal rains weaken during March.

2) Poor seasonal rains have led to water restrictions in southern Botswana and delayed planting and deteriorating livestock conditions in the North West province of South Africa. Persisting below-average rain since late January has resulted in failed crops in local areas. The likelihood for recovery is minimal as the southern African monsoon season is coming to an end.

3) An extended dry spell since mid-February has resulted in stressed vegetation and permanently wilted crops over local areas of southern Zambia. Little to no rainfall was observed over the past week and is expected to continue during the next outlook period, potentially increasing moisture deficits over the region.

4) After rainfall surpluses during January, rainfall has significantly reduced since mid-February. This has led to developing dryness, with rainfall deficits exceeding 150 mm over the Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces of northern Mozambique over the past thirty days. Dryness could persist and potentially negatively impacting crops as light rain is forecast over the next outlook period.