Welcome to the October issue of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project’s (ACLED) Conflict Trends report. Each month, ACLED researchers gather, analyse and publish data on political violence in Africa in realtime. Weekly updates to realtime conflict event data are published on the ACLED website, and are also available through our research partners at Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS).
Véronique Dudouet & Stina Lundström, with support from David Rampf
Africa Weather Hazards
As we write this, Africa is suffering from the strongest El Niño it has faced in decades, causing major floods and droughts throughout Africa, leading to rising economic losses and major impacts on the lives and livelihoods of millions across the continent. Countries across the continent are declaring states of emergency, and are calling on the international community for support.
Cyclical drought, food insecurity, cyclones, floods, disease outbreaks, and complex emergencies present significant challenges to vulnerable populations throughout the Southern Africa region. Between FY 2007 and FY 2016, USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and USAID’s Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) provided humanitarian assistance in response to a diverse range of natural and manmade disasters.
1. The present report is submitted pursuant to Security Council resolution 2277 (2016), in which the Council requested me to report on the implementation of the commitments under the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Region.(1) It covers developments since the issuance of my report of 9 March 2016 (S/2016/232) and provides information on peace and security developments in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Great Lakes region until 20 September 2016.
The El Niño induced drought resulted in 15 percent drop in regional cereal production from 29 million tonnes in 2015 to 26 million tonnes in 2016 which is about 11 percent decrease compared to the five-year average1 . Southern parts of Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar as well as most of Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Botswana and Namibia have been significantly affected by this drought.
Approximately 40.8 million people (22.5% of rural population) will be food insecure in Southern Africa up to March 2017.
Flood and landslide threats will continue after Matthew hit the Hispaniola region hard
Africa Weather Hazards
Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season throughout the Niger River basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner Niger delta in Mali
The South African National Crop Committee’s (CEC) final maize production estimate for the 2015-16 harvest stands at 7.5 million tons, up by 3% from their previous estimate, but down by 24% from the previous season. More specifically, yellow and white maize production estimates were revised up by 5% and 2% from the previous estimates to 4.28 million tons and 3.25 million tons, respectively (Agbiz, www.agbiz.co.za).)
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Drought-reduced 2016 harvest results in tighter maize supplies
Imports of maize forecast at over 3 million tonnes in 2016/17, more than double previous year’s level
Strengthening South Africa rand contributes to declining maize prices
Maize production in 2016 decreases steeply for second consecutive year
Most households in Southern Africa depend on maize as their main source of food and energy, given the high volumes and ease with which it is produced. Alternative food crops that are consumed as substitutes include rice, wheat, sorghum, millet, and tubers such as cassava and potatoes. Consumption of these substitutes occurs mainly when maize is not available or among those households in areas where such substitutes are more easily available (for example, cassava in northern Mozambique).
UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and delegations from African countries as well as the African Union, agreed today on final steps to end the protracted Rwandan refugee situation after seven years of negotiations.
This ministerial meeting, hosted by UNHCR in Geneva, marks the last phase of a comprehensive solutions strategy for Rwandan refugees who fled their country between 1959 and 1998 to escape inter-ethnic violence and armed conflict.
South Africa - IOM will today sign a cooperation agreement with the Royal Dutch Embassy in Maputo, Mozambique, to provide funding worth EUR11.1 million for a four-year project dealing with sexual and reproductive health in migration-affected areas of southern Africa.
By Huma Haider
Is there evidence that the degree of respect for international humanitarian law (IHL) during an armed conflict affects peace processes (improves the prospects for peace-making)?
SADC declares Regional Drought Disaster and launches a Regional Humanitarian Appeal for assistance to support the ongoing and planned response efforts of its Member States.
The Humanitarian Appeal is a result of the negative impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño induced drought, the worst in 35 years,
It is often people’s immediate community that provides the first, last and perhaps best tactical response for many people affected by or under threat of displacement. In the 23 feature theme articles in this issue of FMR, authors from around the world – including authors who are themselves displaced – explore the capacity of communities to organise themselves before, during and after displacement in ways that help protect the community.
FMR 53 also includes eight ‘general’ articles on other aspects of forced migration.
Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agrometeorology in 2016/2017
SARCOF is predicting normal to above normal rainfall in the southern parts of the region, while normal to below normal rainfall is expected in the northern areas
The latest model forecasts have reduced La Niña expectations, and suggest near-equal chances for neutral ENSO and weak La Niña conditions through end of 2016.